If it all plays out like they say it will…

By: Steve | August 15th, 2007

Well, let’s take a look at some of the big rumours still going around La Liga… I’m going to make some commentary about them, plus what impacts they might have, and the likelihood that they’ll go through.

Guti 1. Guti to Tottenham from Real Madrid
Likelihood: 10%

This rumour is just a bit ridiculous. I don’t doubt Spurs desire for a creative central midfielder who can provide service for their quartet of strikers (possibly the best foursome in England, in Berbatov, Keane, Defoe and Bent), but I can’t see Madrid giving up their temperamental sparkplug. It just doesn’t make sense.

Sure, he wants to start, but he’s also wildly inconsistent, alternately brilliant and boring, and prone to diving and temper tantrums that sometimes results in a card. That’s why Capello’s handling of Guti last year was so effective, bringing him on as a substitute, often at halftime, to provide an offensive spark when the side needed one.

He’s great in small doses, when you don’t need to rely on him. I think that’s what prompted the transfer for Wesley Sneijder, who may still lack Guti’s creativity, but you cannot discount his vision and passing. But even with Sneijder, they’ll still need someone for cover in that offensive central midfield spot, because it sure isn’t going to be Gago (who’s been very disappointing) or Baptista (who’s also better off as a change-of-pace guy).

However, with all those options and the still-possible transfer of Arjen Robben, Guti may force his way into a better situation. Unlikely, but it’s higher than 0% chance.

2. Daniel Alves to Chelsea from Sevilla
Likelihood: 90%

What the Special One wants, the Special One gets… most of the time. This move makes so much sense, I’m surprised it hasn’t already happened. I guess Sevilla are pushing for a crazy transfer fee, which they’ll probably get, but with Alves not in the lineup for tonight’s Champions League qualifier despite being fit, the move must be imminent. I don’t really get why there are some rumours which make it seem as if Robben’s move would be somehow related to Alves’. They don’t even play the same wing: Robben on the left, Alves on the right.

This move, which has been reported done several times (here, here, and here), will complete a back four which, when healthy, will be the envy of all of Europe. It’s unlikely any other team can field an array of talent such as Ashley Cole, John Terry, Ricardo Carvalho and Alves. Think of all the runs up both wings. Think of Terry and Carvalho in the centre of the defence, not to mention that Carvalho was the outstanding defender of the two, and Terry wears the armband!

Madrid was supposedly in the running, but really that makes little sense, outside of bolstering what is already a strong rightback position. With Salgado, Cicinho and Sergio Ramos (who deputizes often), not to mention Miguel Torres favouring the right side, Real have an embarrassment of riches. If they were to have succeeded, it’s likely Cicinho would have been shipped out (which may still happen, more on that later) as well as Salgado.

In the end, Chelsea will grab Alves, Sevilla will be weakened, and Madrid will not have to worry about it.

3. Arjen Robben to Real Madrid from Chelsea
Likelihood: 90%

At the end of last season, I would’ve said the likelihood would be under 30%, because for all his flaws, Robben is still a great talent. However, with Chelsea’s acquistion of French winger Florent Malouda, he’s become surplus to requirements. Malouda and Cole are already showing a great connection on the left wing, and Joe Cole is still around to provide support though he’s always been better on the right side.

The other reason I would’ve said it so unlikely is the seeming incompetence of Madrid’s executives, Calderon and Mijatovic. Time and time again, they go about their transfers so arrogantly and then they are surprised they get rebuffed? Calderon promised Robben, Cristiano Ronaldo, Kaka and Cesc Fabregas, none of whom have signed on (yet). Even worse, Madrid’s pursuit of Kaka and Cesc have brought forth strong rebukes from Milan and Arsenal, respectively.

Anyways, the situation has changed. Apparently, Madrid are aware of how idiotic their negotiating tactics are, and hopefully, that will help. There’s no doubting the gaps in Madrid’s left wing, nor the strength of Chelsea’s… it’s just a matter of agreeing to the right transfer fee.

Personally, I’d be more excited if Robben wasn’t so prone to being on the pitch (as in, diving) and off the pitch (as in, injured). But if you’re going to bring in talent, you might as well bring in some good ones. Robben’s a good one.

Cicinho 4. Cicinho to Roma or Sevilla from Real Madrid
Likelihood: 50%

I think Cicinho’s pretty good. He hasn’t gotten a fair shake at Madrid yet, being either injured or buried on the bench. He’s also been passed by Alves in the race to replace Cafu on the Brazil national team, but that just means that he’s still in the running, which ain’t too bad.

I think he lacks defensive awareness though, which for a rightback is obviously important. That’s most likely the reason why Salgado usually started. Roberto Carlos was a similar type player on the left, but he had the footspeed to recover and chase down an opponent - how many times have we seen Carlos run after a player and block a cross that he had no business blocking? Or chasing a loose ball going out of bounds? I have yet to see that from Cicinho.

In any case, it’s clear he’s unsettled in Madrid, not being able to get any playing time at rightback. Schuster has played him at times farther up the right wing, or even on the left, but he’s one of those “play me at my position or let me go” kinda guys, hence the rumours about Roma. There was talk of Totti making calls to lure him there, but apparently Cicinho’s wife didn’t want to move, and so the Roma rumours have quieted.

What has heated up are the rumours with Sevilla, who will be in the market for a rightback after (if?) they lose Alves. It would be difficult to see Madrid strengthen a side which is a direct competitor for the league, but like the situation with Cassano, it may be better to let him go than to let him fester and complain and bitch about things. I guess it depends if the price is right, which will ultimately be determined by what Alves fetches from Chelsea.

5. Rafael van der Vaart to Valencia from Hamburg
Likelihood: 30%

I know it pains Corey to see this, but Rafael van der Vaart is more likely to land at Valencia than the Spanish capital. The central midfielder, who might have the hottest WAG in the business, would bolster a strong lineup already featuring talents like Joaquin, David Villa, David Silva and former Real striker Fernando Morientes.

There was some speculation that van der Vaart was a target of Madrid’s affections, but that’s likely neither here nor there after the acquisition of Sneijder, with whom he’s most often compared. Observers tend to favour either Sneijder’s passing and long-range shooting or van der Vaart’s all-around excellence. Madrid has clearly opted for the former, probably to play the playmaker and distributor role left vacant since Zinedine Zidane’s retirement.

Though van der Vaart has indicated interest in the move, Hamburg has denied at least one offer from Valencia, indicating that they will make a strong push to keep the Dutch international. That’s good news for fans of Los Merengues.

Emerson 6. Emerson to Milan from Real Madrid
Likelihood: 35%

This transfer has been rumoured since the end of last season, if not even earlier. When he arrived last year, there were high expectations of this midfield enforcer, to reprise the role he played so well at Juventus under Capello. Unfortunately, he experienced a loss of form and confidence which led to his midseason request to stop playing home matches as he was whistled mercilessly by the Bernabeu fans. Luckily for him, he started hitting his stride at about the same time David Beckham started making his comeback, and by the end of the season, though he may not have been starting, at least he was seeing the pitch at home.

Still, the experience had him longing for a return to Italy, and Milan has already had an offer rejected by Madrid. Though they may not make another attempt, it’s evident that the Brazilian international will not be seeing regular first-team time, with Mahamadou Diarra the preferred defensive midfielder.

Other rumours
Adriano to Valencia from Inter; likelihood: 5%
This wild rumour, generally unsubstantiated from other sources, would give Valencia probably the number 2 offensive line in Spain after Barcelona. Though he’s gone through a shocking loss of form since the 2005 Confederations Cup, it’s doubtful the Brazilian forward peaked at age 23, hence the reluctance of the Italian club to part ways with him.

Ronaldinho to Milan from Barcelona; likelihood: 0%
It’s unfathomable why Barcelona would give up ‘little Ronaldo’, but Milan nonetheless gave it the ol’ college try - and failed miserably. Pairing up Ronaldinho with Kaka would be a wet dream for any fan of the Rossoneri, but it ain’t happening.

Gudjohnsen and Maxi Lopez to ??? from Barcelona; likelihood: 50%
I’m pairing up these two Barcelona forwards, because they’re in the same situation: nowhere to play in Barca, no one to come and get them. Both players have been told they’re surplus to requirements, but as of yet, there’s no indication that they’ll be moving anywhere, though they could still be loaned out as Maxi was last year at Real Mallorca.