Numancia Preview

So with Spain winning both of their opening games, we finish the week of internationals happy. But do not rest on your laurels, because La Liga is back in action Saturday, with Jornada 2 kicking off a long stretch of league geames (and the Champions League to follow this week!). Real hosts Numancia, a promoted side that beat Barca last time out, at the Bernabeu on Sunday at 1pm eastern time. As for viewing options, John has pointed out he has yet to see anythin on the program list (Setanta I think he said) so I do not know whats going on there. As always, live-footy has streams that I regulalry use to watch the game, because it doesnt feel like a Real game without Chinese commentary.

Numancia News:

I would be a liar if I said I didnt have extensive knowledge of Numancia off the top of my head. Surprisingly for myself, I cant even name a player that starts for them. So I did my homework, and now am all the more wiser to comment on their players, coach and tactics. Lets start with some stats (I am gonna try and do more statistical breakdowns and trending this year as its something I study hevaily in school and do at work), then the coach.

We must not laugh off last years Segunda Champions, as they were a consistent force in the league all year long. They conceded very few, 38, over 42 games. That in itself is an impressive feat, considering we conceded 36 over 38 games, a better percentage of .904 goals per for Numancia and .947 goals per for Real. Of course the competitions are different, but the defensive abilities of Numancia must not be ignored.

As for scoring, there top scorer was Gorka Brit and Javier del Pino, both with 8 goals. In second was Julio Alvarez with 7 and Carmelo with 6. Carmelo I believe was an Atletico youth team player that was on loan and has since moved on, but the other three are on the team. 54 goals last season means an average of 1.40 goals per game, with the three top scorers making up half of those goals.

Also of note, Numancia is where one of our own, Mariano Garcia Remon made his big breakthrough in coaching, after stints in the Real youths teams and jobs with Gijon, Albacete, Las Palmas and Salamanca.

A look at the past 9 seasons:
Season Pos. Pl. W D L GS GA P Spanish Cup Notes
1999-2000 1D 17 38 11 12 15 47 59 45
2000-2001 1D 20 38 10 9 19 40 64 39 relegated
2001-2002 2D 17 42 13 12 17 45 53 51
2002-2003 2D 14 42 12 16 14 48 52 52
2003-2004 2D 3 42 22 10 10 60 30 76 promoted
2004-2005 1D 19 38 6 11 21 30 61 29 quarter-final relegated
2005-2006 2D 8 42 18 9 15 50 55 63
2006-2007 2D 9 42 15 13 14 48 44 58
2007-2008 2D 1 42 22 11 9 59 38 77′ Promoted

Sergio Kresic, who is a shrewd, under-praised coach in much the same way Unai Emery was for Almeria a year ago. He is a very astute tactician who can put out a motivated team that is organized and works together. What they make lack in quality (a great deal at first glance) they make up for in tactical rigidty and team work.

He had this to say about the previous match against Barca and the upcoming match at Real:

“What the theory says and what happens in reality can be different for any number of reasons,”

“The fans can have an effect, the pitch and of course the players, but just like the other day when we had chances (against Barca), we’ll also have them on Sunday and we have to make the most of them.”

That to me looks like he is admitting that he wont get to many chances in the match, and the few they get will be half-chances. I am not trying to sound cocky here, but this years promotion class is far from last years promotion class. Almeria were solid, and sometimes spectacular, while Murcia were a pain in the ass but had their moments. Valladolid was a tricky customer at home but they caned in at the Bernabeu. So I will equate this match to the one with Valladolid at the Bernabeu. Its gonna be a gun show….ladies.

Of course the empathic win over Barca does them a world of good, but with almost two weeks past, the momentum may have subsided. Add to that the fact that Real lost its opening match and wants nothing more then to please the Bernabeu faithful, and this could be a riot. They will obviously be putting 9 men behind the ball and let Gorka Brit do all the foraging on his own. Along with the 11 players they have on the field, they will probably park the teams bus about 3 paces inside the goal as to make sure nothing gets through. This is what happens when you come to the Bernabeu of course.

With that being said, the counter attack is really Numancia’s only option. So with theat option, I expect a 5 man midfield consisting of Nagore as the deep defensive midfielder. He is a tidy professional, and a seasoned vet of La Segunda, his last La Liga action coming in 03/04 with Mallorca. He also played for Atletico before that, so some jeers are in order whenever he touches the ball. Ahead of him will be Jose Barkero, who is a solid midfielder that was with Sociedad until they themselves were relegated. He never was a prominent player with them, but he has found more first team football with Numancia recently. Juan Carlos Moreno is the other midfielder in the center of the park who will look to clog things up.

Mario scored the lone goal against Barca, he will be one of the main threats on the counter with with Carlos Llorens out wide. They will provide some width, but they will do more defending of our wingbacks then attacking. I am pretty sure we will see the same lineup we saw against Barca, because hey, why change a thing that worked? They played compact and on the counter at home to Barca, so they will do more of that on the road. A backline of Domingo, Juanra, Boris and Cesar Palacios should retain their places. Del Pino will be used as a sub to keep Real on their toes late in the second half, while the abilities of Dimas and Carmerero may be utilized if things are getting a little unstuck in the midfield or at the back.

To the best of my knowledge they have no injuries to report, and obviously no suspensions. They lost no players to the international break (did the autonmous communities play?) so they will be fresh and they have plenty of motivation after the opening day win. But will it be enough to keep Madrid out at home?

Real News:

Ok, so first things first, Sneijder is jogging again as I am sure all of you have seen. Which is good news, but we do not want to rush him back into a game. Other then that injury, there were 24 players at training today. Which surely is some kind of record, because neither Pepe nor Metzelder is injured (cross your fingers). Robben was also injured against Deportivo lsightly and was kept out of the first Holland match but I think he is fine, it was a minor bruise on his thigh I believe. Schuster will widdle down his squad tomorrow and I will post that when it comes out, but as we really did not have much player turnover this year, you pretty much know the lineup at any given time. There are some questions though.

First, does Van de Vaart start? I think he does, as Diarra will be all that is required for a more defensive minded team. Guti will also take up his customary attacking midfield role as he looks to unlock the Numancia defense. Robben will be on the left and will hopefully be switching flanks in an attempt to spread the field. The front pairing will probably be Raul and Ruud as well, while Heinze steps into left back as Canna is fit enough to partner Pepe with Sergio Ramos on the right.

But its so boring isnt it. I want to see De la Red and Gago in the midfield, more side-to-side ball movement and a little more controlled possession, something that Diarra and VdV cannot provide given they are too very different players. A Gago and De la Red partnership to me is mouth watering these types of games, so I hope Schuster tries something new. Also, I think VdV should start on the bench. He and Guti should really be interchangable, I do not buy into him playing in place of Sneijder. They are different players with different styles. VdV will be very offensive which will be helpful, but positionally he cant stay in his central midfield spot, which hurts the shape of the team.

At the back, I would really like to see Marcelo start. Heinze has done well this year, and I think he is the obvious starter at left back, but I say sit him and make Marcelo push him for the spot. Marcelo’s considerable attacking abilities as compared to Heinze will be helpful, especially with the loss of Robinho and Robben’s penchant to drift to either side of the field (which is fine). I cant see Marcelo being to challenged by Numancia’s attack, so let the kid have a run out. Heinze knows he is the starter, let him bide his time after a less then impressive performance for Argentina.

Also, Raul should be dropped. Not because he was in the gym all week with a minor knock, but because you can see he is off form. I am completely against selling him etc. but he is not in form. Why does he play if he is not in form? He is vital to the team, but he can be vital from the bench too. Higuain deserves a shot just like De la Red, Gago and Marcelo do. So lets see how it goes with those 4 playing. This is a winnable game, lets not try out some different things to lively up the lineup.

I expect Drenthe to see some time off the bench for Robben, who will only get 70 minutes or so as preperation for the Champions League mid-week. We may also see Metzelder or Javi Garcia rolled into the game for Canna at some point as he is still not 100% although he did play in both of Italy’s games.

I am gonna predict a 3-0 win for Real, with Ruud at the double and Robben addidng a third. Games on Sunday at 1 eastern time, streams will be here. Should be a liveblog up from Steve or Dancy, we are spoiled these days with so many options! Anyways, HALA MADRID.

UPDATE: From RealMadrid.com

Rafael van der Vaart had to miss the match against Deportivo due to suspension, but he will be able to make his La Liga debut at the Bernabéu against Numancia. Ramos and Sneijder are out due to injury. The defender has pubalgia and the Dutch midfielder is till recovering from the torn internal lateral ligament on his left knee. Torres, Cannavaro, Javi García and Codina won’t play for coaching decisions.

SQUAD LIST:

Goalkeepers: Casillas, Dudek.
Defenders: Pepe, Marcelo, Metzelder, Heinze, Salgado.
Midfielders: Diarra, Gago, Guti, Robben, Drenthe, De la Red, Van der Vaart.
Forwards: Raúl, Van Nistelrooy, Higuaín, Saviola.

Ramos being out is not very helpful. But not bringing Torres with us does not make much sense either, because now we have the terror of Michel Salgado on RB. Also, it appears VdV will be starting, so Schuster didnt take my advice with Gago and De la Red. Oh well, hope its a good game.

Category: Team News

Tags: Team News

Subscribe   The Offside RSS Feeds

Print

Share